STATISTIKA

berikut ini beberapa materi dasar seputar statistika, mulai dari penulisan hipotesis, analisis deskriptif sampai berbagai macam analisis inferensial. Semoga bermanfaat

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PEMBAHASAN SOAL IMO

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BUKU ALJABAR ABSTRAK HERSTAIN

Assalamualaikum,,,

buat kalian yang agi nyari-nyari buku referensi yang baus buat belajar aljabar abstrak. 

ini salah satu referensi buku terbaik buat belajar aljabar abstrak,silahkan downdload disini

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BUKU STATISTIKA WALPOLE

Assalamualaikum Math Lovers
ini aku mau bagiin buku statistiknya walpole
semoga bermanfaat ....
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BUKU DAN KUNCI JAWABAN ANALISIS REAL BARTLE

Assalamualaikum cantik....
karena berbagi itu indah, hari ini aku mau bagiin buku Analisis Real penulis bartle sekaligus kunci jawabannya yang merupakan kiblat buku-buku analisis real lainnya....kali aja ada yang butuh gitu...

selamat belajar, semoga bermanfaat yah cantik....

buku dan kunci jawaban bisa di downdload
buku bartle 
jawaban bab 2
jawaban bab 3
latihan soal lainnya

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NUMERIC METHOD (ENVELOPE)

1.      Introduction

The Moving Average Envelope (MAE) is a reduction of the study moving average. The concept is very simple, just add and subtract the moving average ordinary by a certain percentage. Moving Average Envelopes are percentage-based envelopes set above and below a moving average. The moving average, which forms the base for this indicator, can be a simple or exponential moving average. Each envelope is then set the same percentage above or below the moving average. This creates parallel bands that follow price action. With a moving average as the base, Moving Average Envelopes can be used as a trend following indicator. However, this indicator is not limited to just trend following. The envelopes can also be used to identify overbought and oversold levels when the trend is relatively flat.

Moving Average Envelopes are percentage-based envelopes set above and below a moving average. The moving average, which forms the base for this indicator, can be a simple or exponential moving average. Each envelope is then set the same percentage above or below the moving average. This creates parallel bands that follow price action. With a moving average as the base, Moving Average Envelopes can be used as a trend following indicator. However, this indicator is not limited to just trend following. The envelopes can also be used to identify overbought and oversold levels when the trend is relatively flat

MAE uses only one moving average that has specific. We can also determine the price of a bond. The price level has two lines the same distance from the mean of moving average which exponential, smooth, or normal. Lines moving average is invisible. Although there are several approaches, but the most simple which uses the price level as the initial price and the final price. When the price moves to a higher price level, we can begin purchasing activities. When it has been in the position of shorter, then we can put an end to the activities of purchase. Conversely when the price moves to lower price level, then we end purchase activities and make the sale.

Moving Average Envelopes consist of a moving average plus and minus a certain user defined percentage deviation. Moving Average Envelopes serve as an indicator of overbought or oversold conditions, visual representations of price trend, and anindicator of price breakouts. The inputs of the Moving Average Envelopes indicator is shared below:

1.      Moving Average: A simple moving average of both the highs and the lows. (generally 20-period, but varies among technical analysts; also, a person could use only the close when calculating the moving average, rather than two)

2.      Upper Band: The moving average of the highs plus a user defined percentage increase (usually between 1 & 10%).

3.      Lower Band: The moving average of the lows minus a user defined percentage (again, usually between 1 & 10%).

In the Kaufman book, entitled Commodity Trading Systems and Methods, the writer suggest some approaches, as follows:

1.      To conduct the purchase or sale in the closing stages after the signal has been flagged.

2.      Delaying the purchase or sale activity for 1-3 days after being given the signal.

3.      Conducting buy or sell after prices back to initial position by 50% (or other percentage) that follow a sign or signal.

4.      To conduct the purchase or sale when the price moves in the range of a predetermined risk to a point where we are required to stop after having spending a certain amount.

2.      Literature Envelopes

A type of technical indicator typically formed by two moving averages that define upper and lower price range levels. An envelope is a technical indicator used by investors and traders to help identify extreme overbought and oversold conditions in a market. The envelopes, which typically appear overlaid on a price chart, are also useful in identifying trading ranges for a particular trading instrument.

A moving average envelope calculates two moving averages using the high price and low price inputs. Both averages are calculated using price data from the same number of bars, as determined by the input length. The average of the high price is increased by a user-specified percent and then plotted; the average of the low price is reduced by a user-specified percentage and then plotted. The envelope inputs can be customized to suit each investor's or trader's style and preferences.

While traders may interpret and apply the information in unique ways, many traders use an envelope so that a sell signal occurs when price reaches the upper band, signifying an overbought market, and a buy signal occurs when price drops to the lower band, representing an oversold market. Since a trading instrument's price tends to stay within the range represented by an envelope, the theory is that prices will continue to bounce between the upper and lower thresholds.

In Envelopes setting, The period set in default is 14 in the Meta trader, whereas the deviation set is 0.1 or 0.1%. This indicator is same as Bollinger Band as both shows the price moves to their extremes.

SMA/WMA/EMA Envelopes plot a band composed of two moving averages, one which is shifting upwards, the other shifting downwards, to help define a stock's upper and lower boundaries. The bands of an envelope are calculated as follows:

Upper Band = MA(CLOSE, N)*[1+K/100]

Lower Band = MA(CLOSE, N)*[1-K/100]

Where:

MA — Simple (or Weighted or Exponential) Moving Average;

N — averaging period;

K/100 — the value of shifting from the average (measured in basis points).

In addition, the envelope is a technical indicator used by investors and traders to help identify the state of excessive purchases and sales in the market. The envelope that usually appears repeatedly is also useful for identifying levels of trade for a trading instrument that is special.

A moving average envelope is useful to calculate two moving averages using the input (starting price) is high or low. The average of the two prices is calculated using the price data of the same bar, which is specified by the length of the input bar. The average of the high price can be enhanced by percent user-specific and then by way of the plot while the average low price can be lowered by a specific percentage of the user and then by  plot. The input of the envelope can be adjusted to fit each way and options held by the investor or trader.

3.      Formula

Calculation for Moving Average Envelopes is straight-forward. First, choose a simple moving average or exponential moving average. Simple moving averages weight each data point (price) equally. Exponential moving averages put more weight on recent prices and have less lag. Second, select the number of time periods for the moving average. Third, set the percentage for the envelopes. A 20-day moving average with a 2.5% envelope would show the following two lines:

Upper Envelope: 20-day SMA + (20-day SMA x .025)

Lower Envelope: 20-day SMA - (20-day SMA x .025)

The chart above shows IBM with a 20-day SMA and 2.5% envelopes. Note that the 20-day SMA was added to this SharpChart for reference. Notice how the envelopes move parallel with the 20-day SMA. They remain a constant 2.5% above and below the moving average.

Interpretatiaon, Indicators based on channels, bands and envelopes are designed to encompass most price action. Therefore, moves above or below the envelopes warrant attention. Trends often start with strong moves in one direction or another. A surge above the upper envelope shows extraordinary strength, while a plunge below the lower envelope shows extraordinary weakness. Such strong moves can signal the end of one trend and the beginning of another.

With a moving average as its foundation, Moving Average Envelopes are a natural trend following indicator. As with moving averages, the envelopes will lag price action. The direction of the moving average dictates the direction of the channel. In general, a downtrend is present when the channel moves lower, while an uptrend exists when the channel moves higher. The trend is flat when the channel moves sideways.

Sometimes a strong trend does not take hold after an envelope break and prices move into a trading range. Such trading ranges are marked by a relatively flat moving average. The envelopes can then be used to identify overbought and oversold levels for trading purposes. A move above the upper envelope denotes an overbought situation, while a move below the lower envelope marks an oversold condition.

The Future Source software system is a system that first calculate moving average. then The system calculates the percentage of the price level in the range of moving average with the following formula:

Mat = (P1 +... + Pn) / n

• Mat is the moving average.

• Pn price on the n-th interval

• n is the length of the moving average.

In the use of the software, when will calculate the average level of prices, we must put a percentage value on the price level in units of percent. By looking at the percentage of parameter below, the calculations can be done as follows:

UBt = Mat + (Mat * %P)
LBt = Mat - (Mat * %P)

• UBT is a higher price level

• LBT is the lower price level

• Mat is the moving average for the current interval.

• % P is the percentage for the price level.

The parameters for the Moving Average Envelopes depend on your trading/investing objectives and the characteristics of the security involved. Traders will likely use shorter (faster) moving averages and relatively tight envelopes. Investors will likely prefer longer (slower) moving averages with wider envelopes.

Parameters:

a.       Period (10) - the number of bars or the period used to calculate the moving average.

b.      Percent (50) - the percentage of the value used for the price level is (1/100). For example, 30 indicates 30/100.

c.       Appearances / concealment midpoint (0). - This parameter is used to show or hide the midpoint value for the price level. 0 hide, 1: show

 Disadvantages Technical Analysis Envelope

a.       Can not help investors to know the state of excessive purchases and sales in the market.

b.      For Indonesia, in the technical analysis of the envelope type used is about 10%.

c.       Unable to capture the short term trend changes.

Conclusion

    Moving Average Envelopes are percentage-based envelopes set above and below a moving average. The moving average, which forms the base for this indicator, can be a simple or exponential moving average. Each envelope is then set the same percentage above or below the moving average. This creates parallel bands that follow price action. With a moving average as the base, Moving Average Envelopes can be used as a trend following indicator. However, this indicator is not limited to just trend following. The envelopes can also be used to identify overbought and oversold levels when the trend is relatively flat

A type of technical indicator typically formed by two moving averages that define upper and lower price range levels. An envelope is a technical indicator used by investors and traders to help identify extreme overbought and oversold conditions in a market. The envelopes, which typically appear overlaid on a price chart, are also useful in identifying trading ranges for a particular trading instrument.

Moving Average Envelopes are mostly used as a trend following indicator, but can also be used to identify overbought and oversold conditions. After a consolidation period, a strong envelope break can signal the start of an extended trend. Once an uptrend is identified, chartists can turn to momentum indicator and other techniques to identify oversold readers and pullbacks within that trend. Overbought conditions and bounces can be used as selling opportunities within a bigger downtrend. In the absence of strong trend, the Moving Average Envelopes can be used like the Percent Price Oscillator. Moves above the upper envelope signal overbought readings, while moves below the lower envelope signal oversold readings. It is also important to incorporate other aspects of technical analysis to confirm overbought and oversold reading. Resistance and bearish reversals patterns can be used to corroborate overbought readings. Support and bullish reversal patterns can be used to affirm oversold conditions.

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NUMERICAL METHOD (GALAT)

Numerical methods are techniques that are used to formulate the mathematical problem to be solved by arithmetic operations. With computers it can handle complex problem and involves extensive calculation, for example, to solve the problem not the solution of a linear equation, a large system of equations, and other matters included in the technical and social. Problems that are difficult or impossible solved by analytically can solved by numerical methods.

Analytical method is a method of resolving mathematical model with algebraic formulas that prevalent. Numerical method is a technique used to formulate the mathematical problem that can solved with arithmetic operations (+, -, x, and :)

The material that will bi discussed in this lecture in this subject begins with a discussion of the importance of studying numerical methods, mathematical models for engineering problems, programming and software averview that can be used to solve numerical problems, values and error (galat) approach, the description oftaylor series to determine the value of function, differential, interpolation, determining root non-linear equations, solving equation system by using method: elimination, Gaus elimination, Gaus Jourdan elimination, LU decomposition, nemerical integration, second-degree differential equations, Runge Kutta method, applications using numerical methods.

The difference numerical, method with is analytic method solutions. solution by numerical methods is always a number, while usually in the form of analytic functions that must analyzed and then generate numbers. while exact solution solution is in analytic solution (error = 0), while in numerical, the solution in the form of approach so there is a difference called errors (Galat).

Advantages analytical method and numerical methods. Advantages Analytical method is the value obtained is true or exact solution value. while advantages of numerical methods is always can obtain solution with computers, fast calculations and the results can be made as close to the true value and display the results of calculations can be in simulate

Disadvantages of Analytical Methods and numerical methods. Disadvantages  analytical method is need a lot of time, energy and thoughts, and sometimes do not find a solution. Disadvantage numerical methods is the value obtained is approximations and not exact solution values ​​and without the help of calculators, the calculation is generally long and repetitive.

There are many variaty  package of computer programs (eg exel, maple, matlab, or other package programs) that available and trafficked so easy to operate include numerical methods. Thereby, solving the problem simply adjust to the characteristics of the program package with algorithm that are used in solving the problem.

Analytic method is also called true method because it provides a true (exact solution ) or a real , ie a solution that has galat (galat) equal to zero. Galat related by how close approximation to the solution of exact . The smaller the galat, the closer the approximation to the exact , or in other words, the more rigorous numerical solution that obtained.

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MOTIVATION STUDY PROBABILITY

In 1654, a French aristocrat gambler named Chevalier de Mere gave Blaire Pascal the following problem

“In eight probability of throwing a dice, a certain gambler who bets on a certain amount of money has to come up with a score of 1 to win the bet. But after three throws, which all of them failed, the game was halted for a reason. The dealer, who obviously hates losing, insists on retaining some of the gambler’s bet money as a collateral. The question is, how much of he money must be retained?”

 In the beginning Pascal considered this as an easy problem which can be solved with common logics and algebra. But after spending days trying to find the solution he started to consider it as a difficult problem and realized that there was no branch of mathematics that could be used to solve it. He then communicated the problem to his fellow mathematician named Pierre de Fermat. After going through exhausting communications, they finally suceed in finding the solution. Their attempt became the beginning of the development of modern probability theories. You are also challenged to solve Mr. Chavelir’s problem before and after learning probability theories in this chapter.

In its development, probability theories became very important and usefull in various fields, especially insurance, biology, social life, industry, spoerts, anthropology, demography, physics and many more. Unfortunately, probability theories are widely used by gambling dealers to squeeze money out of ameteur gamblers by coducting unfair practices which are mathematically assured to put gamblers at a disadvantage.

Learn the probability theories and find out that there are benefits to be gained by using them to make various observations in everyday life.

                                     

Before studying probability theories, we shall first study counting rules as the fundation of probability theories  

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Representasi Graph

 

Bila graf akan diproses dalam program komputer, maka graf harus direpresentasikan didalam memori. Terdapat beberapa representasi yang mungkin untuk graf. Disini hanya diberikan tiga macam representasi yang sering digunakan, yaitu

1. Matriks Ketetanggaan (adjacency matrix)

2. Matriks Bersisian (incidency matrix)

3. Senarai Ketetanggaan (adjacency list)

 

1.        Matriks Ketetanggaan (adjacency matrix)

A = [a_ij],

a_ij = 1, jika simpul i dan j bertetangga    

a_ij = 0, jika simpul i dan j tidak bertetangga      

 

2. Matriks Bersisian (incidency matrix)

Matriks bersisian dapat digunakan untuk merepresentasikan graf yang mengandung sisi ganda

A = [a_ij],

a_ij  = 1,  jika simpul i bersisian dengan sisi j              

a_ij =  0,   jika simpul i tidak bersisian dengan sisi j

 

3. Senarai Ketetanggaan (adjacency list)

Kelemahan matriks ketetanggaan adalah bila graf memiliki jumlah sisi relatif sedikit, karena matriksnya bersifat jarang, yaitu banyak mengandung elemen nol. Ditinjau dari implementasinya di dalam komputer, kebutuhan ruang memori untuk matriks jarang boros karena komputer menyimpan elemen nol yang tidak perlu. Senarai ketetanggaan mengenumerasi simpul-simpul yang bertetangga dengan setiap simpul di dalam graf

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